38–27 · Away 19–14
C. Rodón · LHP3.12 ERA · 1.08 WHIP · 31.2% K34–31 · Home 20–15
B. Bello · RHP4.08 ERA · 1.31 WHIP · 19.8% KBest price: NYY -118 at FanDuel
New York owns the stronger starting-pitcher profile, a rested high-leverage bullpen and a favorable power matchup. Warm weather and wind toward right field help the Yankees' left-handed power. The current price remains below the model's fair line.
What could go wrong
Fenway's variance and Boston's strong home contact rate increase risk. Recheck confirmed lineups and wind within 60 minutes of first pitch.
Rodón's strikeout profile matches Boston's chase weakness.
.351 xwOBA vs RHP over the last 21 days.
Boston used three high-leverage arms yesterday.
Warm air and wind toward right add an estimated 8% HR lift.
Slightly smaller zone; modest boost to walks and total runs.
Model price -147 versus best available market price -118.